Analysis of 2024 Election: Harris vs. Trump – Polls, Favorability, Trust, and Demographics

In less than 47 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election. Fresh swing state polls from Pennsylvania and Michigan show that Harris has etched out a strong 5+ point lead in both states, while a third battleground is too close to call.

The candidates are preparing for an intense final stretch of the campaign, with the needle ready to swing either way; and for the first time in over three years, the average of Kamala Harris’s favorability in the polls is at a neutral rather than negative position.

Harris has a 3.3-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls.

New polling from Quinnipiac University in three key battleground states shows promising lead for Harris — but still room for Trump to turn things around in one.

In Pennsylvania, which hosted last week’s head-to-head debate, Harris leads by 6 points with 51 per cent of the vote, compared to Trump’s 45 per cent.

Harris also enjoys a strong 5-point lead in Michigan, at 50 per cent with Trump at 45 per cent. Part of this could be attributed to Harris’s particularly strong support among Michigan women, higher than the national average.

Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, neither candidate has managed to etch out a real lead. Since Biden won the state by a hairline in 2020 — just 0.63 per cent — we could see a repeat situation in November.

The vice president has suffered overall negative favorability ratings since July 2021, which is not uncommon for those holding public office. However, for the first time in over three years, Harris’s positive and negative favorability ratings became equal on 18 September, according to the average of all favorability polls collated by FiveThirtyEight.

The debate may have been Harris’s chance to turn around her public perception, and ultimately foster a more favorable opinion of herself and her campaign.

On major issues, trust for Harris and Trump is split down the line. An ABC News poll shows that Americans believe Trump will better handle the economy, inflation and immigration, while Harris is more trusted on healthcare, gun violence, and abortion, among other issues.

Capturing the independent vote will be crucial for either Harris or Trump to take the lead in this election. This is also the most likely group to vote for a third-party candidate, though with RFK Jr out of the race, this has dwindled to just 4 per cent of independents.

An Activote poll shows that Trump’s key supporters remain male voters, those 65+, and white voters with no college education. However, Harris and Trump are tied in the 50-64 age group in this poll, which previously leaned toward Trump.

Harris polls best with young voters, female voters, and Black voters, among whom Harris has a +52 point lead. Meanwhile, Trump has a +6 point lead with Latino voters. Suburban voters chose Trump over Hilary Clinton in 2016, while in 2020, Biden flipped the lead for Democrats.