The Impact of Weighting on Recalled Vote in Political Polling: Two Parallel Universes

The Battle of Polling Methodologies: How Weighting on Recalled Vote is Shaping the Election Narrative

In the world of political polling, a controversial methodological decision has created two parallel universes of polling data over the past month. The divide centers around whether pollsters choose to use “weighting on recalled vote,” a technique that adjusts survey results based on how respondents say they voted in the last election.

In one universe, Kamala Harris leads narrowly in the national popular vote against Donald J. Trump, with a discernible edge in the Northern battleground states. This scenario mirrors the 2022 midterm election. In the other universe, Harris has a clear lead in the national vote, but the battleground states are tightly contested, resembling the 2020 election.

The choice to weight on recalled vote has become a significant fault line among pollsters, with about two-thirds of polls in the last month using this method. The decision to use recalled vote weighting has sparked debate among pollsters, as it historically has been considered a risky approach due to potential biases in how respondents remember their past voting behavior.

Despite the controversy, many pollsters have opted to use recalled vote weighting for several reasons. They believe that recall vote has become more reliable over time, thanks to increased political engagement and improved data collection methods. Additionally, some pollsters use panels of repeat survey-takers to gather more accurate past vote information.

The impact of weighting on recalled vote is evident in recent polls, with results shifting towards the candidate who lost the last election, in this case, Donald Trump. While this approach may help correct past polling errors that underestimated Trump’s support, it also raises concerns about potentially stifling any changes in voter behavior since the last election.

The tension between the two polling methodologies highlights the trade-offs involved in using recalled vote weighting. While it may prevent underestimating Trump’s support, it could also limit the ability to capture shifts in voter sentiment. As the election approaches, the debate over polling methodologies is likely to continue, shaping the narrative of the race between Harris and Trump.