Understanding the Methodology Behind the Polling Data

The latest polling data from The Telegraph’s national voting intention tracker shows a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The methodology used by The Telegraph relies on a variety of US polls aggregated by FiveThirtyEight, with only head-to-head matchups between Harris and Trump considered.

Polls of registered voters are used to update the national voting intention tracker hourly, with a locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) model applied to fit multiple regressions over subsets of the data. Polls are weighted based on the grade assigned to the pollster by FiveThirtyEight, taking into account past accuracy and methodological transparency.

The 95 per cent confidence interval is depicted with shading to account for sampling error and ensure a more accurate representation of public opinion. In terms of electoral college votes, an average of the last five polls from each state is taken into consideration, with states categorized as “solidly,” “leaning,” or “tossup” based on the margin between the candidates.

The swing state tracker charts the latest three individual polls in each 2024 battleground, providing a snapshot of the current political landscape. Approval ratings for Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump are also compared, along with the favorability ratings of vice-presidential picks JD Vance and Tim Walz.

As the 2024 election approaches, The Telegraph’s comprehensive methodology provides valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.