Understanding the “Red Mirage” and “Blue Shift” in Election Results

The “red mirage” and “blue shift” have become familiar terms in recent elections, describing the phenomenon where early Republican leads on election night are later erased by the counting of mail-in ballots. Former President Donald Trump has used this concept to fuel his claims of election fraud, but in reality, it is a result of the increase in mail-in voting and the varying rules on when these ballots can be counted.

In the 2020 election, the race between Trump and now-President Joe Biden was too close to call in key states like Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. The days following Election Day were filled with tense moments as votes were counted, with CNN projecting Biden as the winner four days after the election. Interestingly, counties won by Biden tended to count votes slower than those won by Trump, according to a study by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

States like California, where every registered voter receives a mail-in ballot, were among the slowest in counting votes. This could lead to a “blue shift” in the popular vote, even if it doesn’t impact the final presidential election results. It’s important to note that while news networks may project a winner, official certification of election results can take time, with deadlines varying by state.

The “red mirage” continues to be a topic of interest and debate in the realm of elections, highlighting the complexities and nuances of the voting process.