Analysis of the 2024 Election Race: Last Updated Sept. 23

The race for the presidency between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains tight as we head into the fall election season. According to the latest update from our model, Harris holds a slight lead of about 4 percentage points in the popular vote, with a 62-in-100 chance of winning the election. However, Trump still has a significant 38 percent chance of pulling off a victory.

Recent discussions have centered around potential bias in polling data, with some critics claiming that polls are skewed towards Trump due to an overrepresentation of Republican voters. Others are wary of a repeat of the polling errors seen in the 2016 and 2020 elections, which could lead to a surprise Trump win.

Our model takes into account the possibility of polling bias by simulating various scenarios and outcomes. By running thousands of simulations, we can provide a clearer picture of what might happen in the election, regardless of any potential biases in the polls.

538’s forecast combines polling data with key campaign factors like economic conditions, state partisanship, and incumbency to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning. While the forecast does not predict a definitive winner, it offers valuable insights into the race.

As the election draws nearer, the competition between Harris and Trump is sure to intensify. Stay tuned for more updates on this closely watched race.